INVEST 98W. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT ISSUED AT 01/1430UTC. THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED  NEAR 17.5N 153.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 154.2E, APPROXIMATELY  1420 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO-TO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)  SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION  OBSCURING AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 010749UTC  SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION CONCENTRATED IN  THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. RECENT WATER VAPOR ANALYSIS INDICATES INVEST  98W IS LOCATED DIRECTLY SOUTH OF A TUTT CELL WHICH IS HINDERING  DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THE TUTT CELL IS FORECAST TO  SHIFT WEST, THUS INCREASING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND POTENTIALLY  DEEPENING INVEST 98W. INVEST 98W IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH  ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE  TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (15-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND  SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED  TUTT CELL.
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