Implications People use the simple probability to start and adjust from there, but they don't adjust enough.
{"Image DocumentName": "ImplicationsPeople use the simple probability to start and adjust from there, but they don\u2019t adjust enough.", "Image ImageDescription": "Note that : Pr(disjunctive) > Pr(simple)>Pr(conjunctive) Due to anchoring: pr of conjunctive is overestimated and pr of disjunctive is underestimated. Why do we care? Biases in the evaluation of compound events are particularly significant in the context of planning. The general tendency to overestimate the probability of conjunctive events leads to unwarranted optimism in the evaluation of the likelihood that a plan will succeed or that a project will be completed on time. Conversely: people will underestimate the probabilities of failure in complex systems.", "Image XResolution": "37", "Image YResolution": "37", "Image ResolutionUnit": "Pixels/Centimeter", "Image Software": "SlidePlayer", "Image YCbCrPositioning": "Centered"}